Former President Donald Trump is likely to take a giant leap toward winning the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday, when 15 states will hold their GOP primary contests—setting him up to surge ahead of his final challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
A combined 874 delegates, or 72% of the 1,215 needed to earn a majority and clinch the GOP nomination, will be up for grabs Tuesday.
Trump’s path to the nomination appears all-but-certain as he’s leading Haley in polls in multiple major Super Tuesday states, including Texas and California, where he has a 64 and 54 point advantages, respectively, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.
None of the Super Tuesday states award delegates on an outright winner-take-all basis, so it’s unclear how many Trump will net that day, though he enters the consequential primary day with 273 delegates, compared to Haley’s 43.
Trump’s campaign predicts he could win the nomination as soon as March 12 (when Georgia, Washington, Mississippi and Hawaii will hold their primaries), based on calculations combining polling results in upcoming primary states with delegate availability.
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia will hold their GOP primaries Tuesday. The same states, with the exception of Alaska and in addition to Iowa and American Samoa, will hold their Democratic primaries the same day.
2,429. That’s the total number of GOP delegates.
Haley, who has vowed to stay in the race at least until Super Tuesday, is likely to face renewed pressure to drop out of the race after the contests. Haley won her first primary, in Washington, D.C., on Sunday, with 63% of the vote, securing all 19 delegates. Trump has won all other primary and caucus contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the Virgin Islands, South Carolina, Michigan, Idaho, Missouri and North Dakota.
Trump and President Joe Biden appear to be headed for an unprecedented rematch and a tight race as polls currently show Trump leading Biden by less than three points, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average. The Republican Party has largely coalesced behind Trump, despite his multiple ongoing criminal and civil cases, and polls have shown for months it would defy history if Trump were to lose the nomination given his months-long double-digit polling lead.
Biden has secured all 206 delegates in the four Democratic primaries that have taken place so far in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson are continuing their long shot primary bids, despite winning no delegates. Williamson “unsuspended” her campaign last week after beating Phillips in Michigan’s primary Tuesday. The Democratic nominee needs to win 1,968 out of the total 3,934 delegates available to secure the nomination.
