With less than a month to go, Americans are loading their shopping carts in preparation for Thanksgiving, and while inflation has slowed since this time last year, some items—like canned cranberries and ham—have increased in price as the cost of turkeys is expected to go down the closer it gets to Thanksgiving, a new report by the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute suggested ahead of the fall holiday.
The main staple of most Thanksgiving spreads, turkey, will cost consumers 9% less this year than last year and is expected to get even cheaper as Thanksgiving day approaches, according to Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s chief agricultural economist and author of the report.
That decrease in turkey cost is a result of turkey producers anticipating the economy would be strong by the time Thanksgiving rolled around and preparing more turkeys over the summer to meet the anticipated need, Swanson said.
While turkey prices are down, the slightly less popular centerpiece, ham, is nearing an all-time high with prices around $4.56 per pound, up 5.2% from the previous year, according to the report.
When it comes to other Thanksgiving classics like cranberries, Swanson recommended people buy fresh cranberries rather than canned as fresh cranberries are 20% cheaper than they were this time last year and canned cranberries are up almost 60% from this time last year.
Fresh produce going down in price and canned goods going up is a trend ahead of Thanksgiving, Swanson said, noting that canned green beans are up 9% from this time last year.
84%. Of turkeys sold throughout the year, that’s the percentage that are purchased in the month of November, Swanson said.
Russet potatoes, commonly used for mashed potatoes, have reached an all-time high at $1.17 per pound, up from $1.08 this time last year, an 8% increase, according to the report. That increase in price is the result of last year’s drought, which affected the supply and subsequently the price of the potato supply in the Pacific Northwest, Swanson said. But, not all potatoes are equal. Sweet potatoes, which are almost exclusively sourced from North Carolina, have not experienced a large increase in price. Since North Carolina did not face the same weather conditions as the Pacific Northwest, there has been a more stable and predictable supply of sweet potatoes this year and the increase is smaller, up 4% from this time last year, Swanson said.
Beer prices continue to increase as the cost of labor and packaging increases, the report found. While the rate of the increase has slowed down from where it was last year, prices are overall still up. In September of last year the retail price for a pint of beer was $1.66, and is up 5.4% this September for a price of $1.74 a pint, Swanson said. That increase led Swanson to recommend consumers choose wine over beer for their thanksgiving celebrations. A liter of wine last year cost consumers $13.50 on average and this year a liter of wine is $13.68.
Inflation had been on a steady decline until August when inflation came in at 3.7% and then September when core inflation rose to 4.1%—the highest it had been since May. Despite those increases, inflation has remained well below the 9% mark where it peaked during the summer of 2022. The prices detailed in the Wells Fargo report show that the world has been able to rebalance since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which had a large impact on food prices around the world, Swanson said. While some foods, such as baked goods, are still up significantly from a year ago, many food prices have stabilized.
Consumer Prices Rose Hotter-Than-Expected 0.4% In September (Forbes)
